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Jedinstvo Kruševac vs Budućnost Popovac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jedinstvo Kruševac
Jedinstvo Kruševac
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Budućnost Popovac
Budućnost Popovac
11/4/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 13Sportski centar Jedinstvo 1936

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Jedinstvo Kruševac48%
×Draw23%
Budućnost Popovac29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.75
Budućnost Popovac
1.31

Jedinstvo Kruševac creates 34% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 87 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Kruševac
2.05
Budućnost Popovac
1.40

allows per match

Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.23
Budućnost Popovac
1.45

finishing

Jedinstvo Kruševac+0.00on par
Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Kruševac ↓

Budućnost Popovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Kruševac or draw
71%
Jedinstvo Kruševac or Budućnost Popovac
77%
Draw or Budućnost Popovac
52%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Kruševac wins by 2+
26%
Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Kruševac 1+ goals
83%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 2+ goals
52%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 3+ goals
25%
Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals
73%
Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals
38%
Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Kruševac (draw refunded)
62%
Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Kruševac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Budućnost Popovac away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Kruševac attack 2.05 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.75

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.40 + Jedinstvo Kruševac defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jedinstvo Kruševac scores more
48%
level
23%
Budućnost Popovac scores more
29%

Jedinstvo Kruševac at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jedinstvo Kruševac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Jedinstvo Kruševac 2–2 Budućnost Popovac

Jedinstvo Kruševac and Budućnost Popovac drew 2-2 in Srpska Liga - East on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Sportski centar Jedinstvo 1936 in Kruševac.