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Jedinstvo Bihać vs Tomislav — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Jedinstvo Bihać
Jedinstvo Bihać
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Tomislav
Tomislav
5/26/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 28Stadion Pod Borićima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Jedinstvo Bihać48%
×Draw25%
Tomislav27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Bihać
1.58
Tomislav
1.13

Jedinstvo Bihać creates 40% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 64 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Bihać
1.52
Tomislav
1.20

allows per match

Jedinstvo Bihać
1.05
Tomislav
1.64

finishing

Jedinstvo Bihać+0.00on par
Tomislav+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Bihać ↓

Tomislav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Bihać or draw
73%
Jedinstvo Bihać or Tomislav
75%
Draw or Tomislav
52%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Bihać wins by 2+
25%
Tomislav wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Bihać 1+ goals
79%
Jedinstvo Bihać 2+ goals
47%
Jedinstvo Bihać 3+ goals
21%
Tomislav 1+ goals
68%
Tomislav 2+ goals
31%
Tomislav 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Bihać (draw refunded)
64%
Tomislav (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Bihać at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.05 · 95 matches

Tomislav away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.64 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Bihać attack 1.52 + Tomislav defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.58

Tomislav attack 1.20 + Jedinstvo Bihać defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jedinstvo Bihać scores more
48%
level
25%
Tomislav scores more
27%

Jedinstvo Bihać at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jedinstvo Bihać will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jedinstvo Bihać vs Tomislav

Jedinstvo Bihać beat Tomislav 4-2 in 1st League - FBiH on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Borićima in Bihać.