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Jedinstvo Bihać vs Metalleghe-BSI Jajce — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Jedinstvo Bihać
Jedinstvo Bihać
CANC
00:00
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
3/14/20201st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 17Stadion Pod Borićima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Jedinstvo Bihać62%
×Draw21%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Bihać
1.95
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
0.90

Jedinstvo Bihać creates 117% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 8 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Bihać
1.52
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
0.75

allows per match

Jedinstvo Bihać
1.05
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
2.38

finishing

Jedinstvo Bihać+0.00on par
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Bihać ↓

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Bihać or draw
83%
Jedinstvo Bihać or Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
79%
Draw or Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
38%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Bihać wins by 2+
37%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Bihać 1+ goals
86%
Jedinstvo Bihać 2+ goals
58%
Jedinstvo Bihać 3+ goals
31%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 1+ goals
59%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 2+ goals
23%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Bihać (draw refunded)
79%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Bihać at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.05 · 95 matches

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Bihać attack 1.52 + Metalleghe-BSI Jajce defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.95

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce attack 0.75 + Jedinstvo Bihać defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Jedinstvo Bihać scores more
62%
level
21%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce scores more
17%

Jedinstvo Bihać at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Jedinstvo Bihać will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jedinstvo Bihać vs Metalleghe-BSI Jajce — Match Preview

Jedinstvo Bihać face Metalleghe-BSI Jajce on March 14, 2020 in this 1st League - FBiH fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Jedinstvo Bihać host Metalleghe-BSI Jajce at Stadion Pod Borićima.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.