Jedinstvo Bihać 3–2 Gornji Rahić: Result & Stats

Jedinstvo Bihać

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Gornji Rahić

10/16/2024

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 8Stadion Pod Borićima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Jedinstvo Bihać57%

×Draw22%

Gornji Rahić21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jedinstvo BihaćExpected goals in this matchGornji Rahić

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.13

Jedinstvo Bihać

2.00

Gornji Rahić

1.13

Jedinstvo Bihać creates 77% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 29 away

1.52

creates per match

1.21

1.05

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

Jedinstvo Bihać

1.52

Gornji Rahić

1.21

allows per match

Jedinstvo Bihać

1.05

Gornji Rahić

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jedinstvo Bihać+0.00on par

Gornji Rahić+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Bihać ↓

Gornji Rahić →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Bihać or draw

79%

Jedinstvo Bihać or Gornji Rahić

78%

Draw or Gornji Rahić

43%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Bihać wins by 2+

34%

Gornji Rahić wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Bihać 1+ goals

86%

Jedinstvo Bihać 2+ goals

59%

Jedinstvo Bihać 3+ goals

32%

Gornji Rahić 1+ goals

68%

Gornji Rahić 2+ goals

31%

Gornji Rahić 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Bihać (draw refunded)

73%

Gornji Rahić (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Bihać at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.05 · 95 matches

Gornji Rahić away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Bihać attack 1.52 + Gornji Rahić defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.00

Gornji Rahić attack 1.21 + Jedinstvo Bihać defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Jedinstvo Bihać scores more

57%

level

22%

Gornji Rahić scores more

21%

Jedinstvo Bihać at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Jedinstvo Bihać will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff