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Jeddah Club vs Hetten FC — Division 1 2018

Jeddah Club
Jeddah Club
FT
5 – 2
Hetten FC
Hetten FC
3/3/2020Division 1Division 1 · Round 27King Abdullah Sports City Reserve Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Jeddah Club52%
×Draw24%
Hetten FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeddah Club
1.69
Hetten FC
1.06

Jeddah Club creates 59% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 19 away

creates per match

Jeddah Club
1.05
Hetten FC
0.89

allows per match

Jeddah Club
1.23
Hetten FC
2.32

finishing

Jeddah Club+0.00on par
Hetten FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeddah Club ↓

Hetten FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jeddah Club or draw
76%
Jeddah Club or Hetten FC
76%
Draw or Hetten FC
48%

Winning margin

Jeddah Club wins by 2+
28%
Hetten FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jeddah Club 1+ goals
82%
Jeddah Club 2+ goals
50%
Jeddah Club 3+ goals
24%
Hetten FC 1+ goals
65%
Hetten FC 2+ goals
29%
Hetten FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Jeddah Club (draw refunded)
69%
Hetten FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeddah Club at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Hetten FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeddah Club attack 1.05 + Hetten FC defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hetten FC attack 0.89 + Jeddah Club defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Jeddah Club scores more
52%
level
24%
Hetten FC scores more
24%

Jeddah Club at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Jeddah Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeddah Club vs Hetten FC

Jeddah Club beat Hetten FC 5-2 in Division 1 on March 3, 2020.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sports City Reserve Stadium in Jeddah.