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Jeddah Club vs Al Safa — Division 1 2018

Jeddah Club
Jeddah Club
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Safa
Al Safa
12/13/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 13King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Jeddah Club45%
×Draw27%
Al Safa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeddah Club
1.42
Al Safa
1.08

Jeddah Club creates 31% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 34 away

creates per match

Jeddah Club
1.05
Al Safa
0.94

allows per match

Jeddah Club
1.23
Al Safa
1.79

finishing

Jeddah Club+0.00on par
Al Safa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeddah Club ↓

Al Safa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Jeddah Club or draw
71%
Jeddah Club or Al Safa
73%
Draw or Al Safa
55%

Winning margin

Jeddah Club wins by 2+
22%
Al Safa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jeddah Club 1+ goals
76%
Jeddah Club 2+ goals
41%
Jeddah Club 3+ goals
17%
Al Safa 1+ goals
66%
Al Safa 2+ goals
29%
Al Safa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jeddah Club (draw refunded)
61%
Al Safa (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeddah Club at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Al Safa away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeddah Club attack 1.05 + Al Safa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.42

Al Safa attack 0.94 + Jeddah Club defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jeddah Club scores more
45%
level
27%
Al Safa scores more
29%

Jeddah Club at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jeddah Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeddah Club vs Al Safa

Jeddah Club and Al Safa drew 1-1 in Division 1 on December 13, 2023.

The match was played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Mecca.