Jeddah Club vs Al Najoom — Division 1 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 41+ matches
Jeddah Club46%
Al Najoom28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Jeddah Club creates 35% more chances
Season form · 128 home / 41 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Jeddah Club ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Jeddah Club at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches
Al Najoom away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.93 · 41 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Jeddah Club attack 1.05 + Al Najoom defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.49
Al Najoom attack 0.98 + Jeddah Club defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Jeddah Club at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Jeddah Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Al Baten
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Ain
Al Bukayriyah
Al Nahdha
Al Jabalain
OhodJeddah Club
Al-Thuqbah
Al Taee
Najran
Al Shoalah
Al Jeel
Al-Kawkab
Al Khaleej SaihatAl Najoom
Al Mojzel
Al Taqdom
Al-Ansar
HottainIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Jeddah Club host Al Najoom on Monday, 31 May 2021 at 18:00. The match is part of the Division 1 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Jeddah Club vs Al Najoom
Jeddah Club beat Al Najoom 4-1 in Division 1 on May 31, 2021.
The match was played at Sport Hall Stadium in King Abdullah sport city in Jeddah.