Jeddah Club 1–1 Al Mojzel: Result & Stats

Jeddah Club

FT

1 – 1

Al Mojzel

12/17/2019

Division 1 · Round 17King Abdullah Sports City Reserve Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Jeddah Club46%

×Draw27%

Al Mojzel27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeddah ClubExpected goals in this matchAl Mojzel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.02

Jeddah Club

1.43

Al Mojzel

1.02

Jeddah Club creates 40% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 21 away

1.05

creates per match

0.81

1.23

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Jeddah Club

1.05

Al Mojzel

0.81

allows per match

Jeddah Club

1.23

Al Mojzel

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeddah Club+0.00on par

Al Mojzel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeddah Club ↓

Al Mojzel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Jeddah Club or draw

73%

Jeddah Club or Al Mojzel

73%

Draw or Al Mojzel

54%

Winning margin

Jeddah Club wins by 2+

23%

Al Mojzel wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Jeddah Club 1+ goals

76%

Jeddah Club 2+ goals

42%

Jeddah Club 3+ goals

17%

Al Mojzel 1+ goals

64%

Al Mojzel 2+ goals

27%

Al Mojzel 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Jeddah Club (draw refunded)

63%

Al Mojzel (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeddah Club at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Al Mojzel away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeddah Club attack 1.05 + Al Mojzel defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.43

Al Mojzel attack 0.81 + Jeddah Club defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jeddah Club scores more

46%

level

27%

Al Mojzel scores more

27%

Jeddah Club at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jeddah Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff