Jeddah Club 1–0 Al Kholood: Result & Stats

Jeddah Club

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Kholood

5/17/2022

Division 1 · Round 36Prince Sultan bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Jeddah Club32%

×Draw29%

Al Kholood39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeddah ClubExpected goals in this matchAl Kholood

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.19

Jeddah Club

1.04

Al Kholood

1.19

Al Kholood creates 14% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 53 away

1.02

creates per match

1.15

1.23

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Jeddah Club

1.02

Al Kholood

1.15

allows per match

Jeddah Club

1.23

Al Kholood

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeddah Club+0.00on par

Al Kholood+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeddah Club ↓

Al Kholood →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Jeddah Club or draw

61%

Jeddah Club or Al Kholood

71%

Draw or Al Kholood

68%

Winning margin

Jeddah Club wins by 2+

12%

Al Kholood wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Jeddah Club 1+ goals

65%

Jeddah Club 2+ goals

28%

Jeddah Club 3+ goals

9%

Al Kholood 1+ goals

70%

Al Kholood 2+ goals

33%

Al Kholood 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Jeddah Club (draw refunded)

45%

Al Kholood (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeddah Club at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.23 · 124 matches

Al Kholood away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeddah Club attack 1.02 + Al Kholood defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Al Kholood attack 1.15 + Jeddah Club defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jeddah Club scores more

32%

level

29%

Al Kholood scores more

39%

Al Kholood at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Kholood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff