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Jeddah Club vs Al-Adalah — Division 1 2018

Jeddah Club
Jeddah Club
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Adalah
Al-Adalah
10/27/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 6King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Jeddah Club34%
×Draw28%
Al-Adalah38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeddah Club
1.17
Al-Adalah
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 92 away

creates per match

Jeddah Club
1.05
Al-Adalah
1.27

allows per match

Jeddah Club
1.23
Al-Adalah
1.28

finishing

Jeddah Club+0.00on par
Al-Adalah+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeddah Club ↓

Al-Adalah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jeddah Club or draw
62%
Jeddah Club or Al-Adalah
72%
Draw or Al-Adalah
66%

Winning margin

Jeddah Club wins by 2+
14%
Al-Adalah wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Jeddah Club 1+ goals
69%
Jeddah Club 2+ goals
33%
Jeddah Club 3+ goals
11%
Al-Adalah 1+ goals
71%
Al-Adalah 2+ goals
36%
Al-Adalah 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Jeddah Club (draw refunded)
47%
Al-Adalah (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeddah Club at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Al-Adalah away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.28 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeddah Club attack 1.05 + Al-Adalah defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

Al-Adalah attack 1.27 + Jeddah Club defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jeddah Club scores more
34%
level
28%
Al-Adalah scores more
38%

Al-Adalah at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al-Adalah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Jeddah Club 1–0 Al-Adalah

Jeddah Club beat Al-Adalah 1-0 in Division 1 on October 27, 2025.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah.