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Jecheon Citizen vs Jincheon — K4 League 2026

Jecheon Citizen
Jecheon Citizen
Preview
08:00
Jincheon
Jincheon
9/12/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 22
51%
Jincheon
model favours
25%24%51%
1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Jecheon Citizen25%
×Draw24%
Jincheon51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jecheon Citizen
1.13
Jincheon
1.71

Jincheon creates 51% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Jecheon Citizen
1.00
Jincheon
2.00

allows per match

Jecheon Citizen
1.43
Jincheon
1.25

finishing

Jecheon Citizen+0.00on par
Jincheon+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jecheon Citizen ↓

Jincheon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Jecheon Citizen or draw
49%
Jecheon Citizen or Jincheon
76%
Draw or Jincheon
75%

Winning margin

Jecheon Citizen wins by 2+
10%
Jincheon wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Jecheon Citizen 1+ goals
68%
Jecheon Citizen 2+ goals
31%
Jecheon Citizen 3+ goals
11%
Jincheon 1+ goals
82%
Jincheon 2+ goals
51%
Jincheon 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Jecheon Citizen (draw refunded)
33%
Jincheon (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jecheon Citizen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Jincheon away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jecheon Citizen attack 1.00 + Jincheon defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Jincheon attack 2.00 + Jecheon Citizen defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jecheon Citizen scores more
25%
level
24%
Jincheon scores more
51%

Jincheon at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jincheon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Citizen
LLDWL
Jincheon
LDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jecheon Citizen vs Jincheon — Match Preview

Jecheon Citizen face Jincheon on September 12, 2026 in this K4 League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.