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Jecheon Citizen vs Gijang United — K4 League 2026

Jecheon Citizen
Jecheon Citizen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gijang United
Gijang United
6/28/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Jecheon Citizen45%
×Draw26%
Gijang United29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jecheon Citizen
1.50
Gijang United
1.16

Jecheon Citizen creates 29% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Jecheon Citizen
1.00
Gijang United
0.89

allows per match

Jecheon Citizen
1.43
Gijang United
2.00

finishing

Jecheon Citizen+0.00on par
Gijang United+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jecheon Citizen ↓

Gijang United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jecheon Citizen or draw
71%
Jecheon Citizen or Gijang United
74%
Draw or Gijang United
55%

Winning margin

Jecheon Citizen wins by 2+
22%
Gijang United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jecheon Citizen 1+ goals
78%
Jecheon Citizen 2+ goals
44%
Jecheon Citizen 3+ goals
19%
Gijang United 1+ goals
69%
Gijang United 2+ goals
32%
Gijang United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jecheon Citizen (draw refunded)
61%
Gijang United (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jecheon Citizen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Gijang United away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jecheon Citizen attack 1.00 + Gijang United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Gijang United attack 0.89 + Jecheon Citizen defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jecheon Citizen scores more
45%
level
26%
Gijang United scores more
29%

Jecheon Citizen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jecheon Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K4 League: Jecheon Citizen 1–1 Gijang United

Jecheon Citizen and Gijang United drew 1-1 in K4 League on June 28, 2026.