Jecheon Citizen 1–2 Geumsan Insam: Result & Stats

Jecheon Citizen

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Geumsan Insam

7/11/2026

K4 League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Jecheon Citizen28%

×Draw24%

Geumsan Insam48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jecheon CitizenExpected goals in this matchGeumsan Insam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.66

Jecheon Citizen

1.22

Geumsan Insam

1.66

Geumsan Insam creates 36% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.00

creates per match

1.89

1.43

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Jecheon Citizen

1.00

Geumsan Insam

1.89

allows per match

Jecheon Citizen

1.43

Geumsan Insam

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jecheon Citizen+0.00on par

Geumsan Insam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jecheon Citizen ↓

Geumsan Insam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Jecheon Citizen or draw

52%

Jecheon Citizen or Geumsan Insam

76%

Draw or Geumsan Insam

72%

Winning margin

Jecheon Citizen wins by 2+

12%

Geumsan Insam wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Jecheon Citizen 1+ goals

70%

Jecheon Citizen 2+ goals

34%

Jecheon Citizen 3+ goals

12%

Geumsan Insam 1+ goals

81%

Geumsan Insam 2+ goals

49%

Geumsan Insam 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Jecheon Citizen (draw refunded)

37%

Geumsan Insam (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jecheon Citizen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Geumsan Insam away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jecheon Citizen attack 1.00 + Geumsan Insam defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Geumsan Insam attack 1.89 + Jecheon Citizen defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jecheon Citizen scores more

28%

level

24%

Geumsan Insam scores more

48%

Geumsan Insam at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Geumsan Insam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff