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Jeanfield Swifts vs Stirling University — FA Cup 2019

Jeanfield Swifts
Jeanfield Swifts
FT
3 – 1
Stirling University
Stirling University
12/12/2020FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundRiverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Jeanfield Swifts55%
×Draw20%
Stirling University25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeanfield Swifts
2.38
Stirling University
1.57

Jeanfield Swifts creates 52% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Jeanfield Swifts
2.75
Stirling University
1.14

allows per match

Jeanfield Swifts
2.00
Stirling University
2.00

finishing

Jeanfield Swifts+0.00on par
Stirling University+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeanfield Swifts ↓

Stirling University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Jeanfield Swifts or draw
75%
Jeanfield Swifts or Stirling University
80%
Draw or Stirling University
45%

Winning margin

Jeanfield Swifts wins by 2+
35%
Stirling University wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jeanfield Swifts 1+ goals
91%
Jeanfield Swifts 2+ goals
68%
Jeanfield Swifts 3+ goals
42%
Stirling University 1+ goals
79%
Stirling University 2+ goals
46%
Stirling University 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Jeanfield Swifts (draw refunded)
69%
Stirling University (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeanfield Swifts at home — creates 2.75, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Stirling University away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeanfield Swifts attack 2.75 + Stirling University defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Stirling University attack 1.14 + Jeanfield Swifts defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Jeanfield Swifts scores more
55%
level
20%
Stirling University scores more
25%

Jeanfield Swifts at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jeanfield Swifts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Jeanfield Swifts 3–1 Stirling University

Jeanfield Swifts beat Stirling University 3-1 in FA Cup on December 12, 2020.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Perth.