Jeanfield Swifts 1–1 Preston Athletic

Jeanfield Swifts

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Preston Athletic

8/30/2025

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundRiverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jeanfield Swifts50%

×Draw20%

Preston Athletic30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeanfield SwiftsExpected goals in this matchPreston Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.83

Jeanfield Swifts

2.38

Preston Athletic

1.83

Jeanfield Swifts creates 30% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

2.75

creates per match

1.67

2.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Jeanfield Swifts

2.75

Preston Athletic

1.67

allows per match

Jeanfield Swifts

2.00

Preston Athletic

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeanfield Swifts+0.00on par

Preston Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeanfield Swifts ↓

Preston Athletic →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Jeanfield Swifts or draw

70%

Jeanfield Swifts or Preston Athletic

80%

Draw or Preston Athletic

50%

Winning margin

Jeanfield Swifts wins by 2+

30%

Preston Athletic wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Jeanfield Swifts 1+ goals

91%

Jeanfield Swifts 2+ goals

68%

Jeanfield Swifts 3+ goals

42%

Preston Athletic 1+ goals

84%

Preston Athletic 2+ goals

54%

Preston Athletic 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Jeanfield Swifts (draw refunded)

62%

Preston Athletic (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jeanfield Swifts at home — creates 2.75, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Preston Athletic away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jeanfield Swifts attack 2.75 + Preston Athletic defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Preston Athletic attack 1.67 + Jeanfield Swifts defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jeanfield Swifts scores more

50%

level

20%

Preston Athletic scores more

30%

Jeanfield Swifts at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jeanfield Swifts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Jeanfield Swifts 1–1 Preston Athletic

Jeanfield Swifts and Preston Athletic drew 1-1 in FA Cup on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Perth.

Jeanfield Swifts vs Preston Athletic — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

FA Cup: Jeanfield Swifts 1–1 Preston Athletic