Jeanfield Swifts 2–5 Linlithgow Rose

Jeanfield Swifts

2 – 5

Linlithgow Rose

9/7/2019

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundRiverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Jeanfield Swifts31%

×Draw20%

Linlithgow Rose50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeanfield SwiftsExpected goals in this matchLinlithgow Rose

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

2.40

Jeanfield Swifts

1.88

Linlithgow Rose

2.40

Linlithgow Rose creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

2.75

creates per match

2.80

2.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Jeanfield Swifts

2.75

Linlithgow Rose

2.80

allows per match

Jeanfield Swifts

2.00

Linlithgow Rose

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeanfield Swifts+0.00on par

Linlithgow Rose+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeanfield Swifts ↓

Linlithgow Rose →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–16%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Jeanfield Swifts or draw

50%

Jeanfield Swifts or Linlithgow Rose

80%

Draw or Linlithgow Rose

69%

Winning margin

Jeanfield Swifts wins by 2+

16%

Linlithgow Rose wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Jeanfield Swifts 1+ goals

85%

Jeanfield Swifts 2+ goals

56%

Jeanfield Swifts 3+ goals

29%

Linlithgow Rose 1+ goals

91%

Linlithgow Rose 2+ goals

69%

Linlithgow Rose 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Jeanfield Swifts (draw refunded)

38%

Linlithgow Rose (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jeanfield Swifts at home — creates 2.75, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Linlithgow Rose away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jeanfield Swifts attack 2.75 + Linlithgow Rose defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Linlithgow Rose attack 2.80 + Jeanfield Swifts defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jeanfield Swifts scores more

31%

level

20%

Linlithgow Rose scores more

50%

Linlithgow Rose at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Linlithgow Rose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff