Jeanfield Swifts 3–0 Cupar Hearts: Result & Stats

Jeanfield Swifts

3 – 0

Cupar Hearts

9/2/2023

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundRiverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jeanfield Swifts47%

×Draw19%

Cupar Hearts34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeanfield SwiftsExpected goals in this matchCupar Hearts

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

2.17

Jeanfield Swifts

2.54

Cupar Hearts

2.17

Jeanfield Swifts creates 17% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

2.75

creates per match

2.33

2.00

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Jeanfield Swifts

2.75

Cupar Hearts

2.33

allows per match

Jeanfield Swifts

2.00

Cupar Hearts

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeanfield Swifts+0.00on par

Cupar Hearts+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeanfield Swifts ↓

Cupar Hearts →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–03%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

68%32%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Jeanfield Swifts or draw

66%

Jeanfield Swifts or Cupar Hearts

81%

Draw or Cupar Hearts

53%

Winning margin

Jeanfield Swifts wins by 2+

28%

Cupar Hearts wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Jeanfield Swifts 1+ goals

92%

Jeanfield Swifts 2+ goals

72%

Jeanfield Swifts 3+ goals

46%

Cupar Hearts 1+ goals

89%

Cupar Hearts 2+ goals

64%

Cupar Hearts 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Jeanfield Swifts (draw refunded)

58%

Cupar Hearts (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jeanfield Swifts at home — creates 2.75, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Cupar Hearts away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jeanfield Swifts attack 2.75 + Cupar Hearts defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.54

Cupar Hearts attack 2.33 + Jeanfield Swifts defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jeanfield Swifts scores more

47%

level

19%

Cupar Hearts scores more

34%

Jeanfield Swifts at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jeanfield Swifts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff