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VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig — Bundesliga 2026

VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig
S. Zuber 16' (pen)
Y. Poulsen 74', 6'
M. Sabitzer 68'
2/16/2019BundesligaBundesliga · Round 22Mercedes-Benz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

VfB Stuttgart45%
×Draw24%
RB Leipzig31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfB Stuttgart
1.69
RB Leipzig
1.35

VfB Stuttgart creates 25% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 30 away

creates per match

VfB Stuttgart
1.87
RB Leipzig
1.45

allows per match

VfB Stuttgart
1.25
RB Leipzig
1.50

finishing

VfB Stuttgart-0.20scores less
RB Leipzig-0.08on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfB Stuttgart ↓

RB Leipzig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

VfB Stuttgart or draw
69%
VfB Stuttgart or RB Leipzig
76%
Draw or RB Leipzig
55%

Winning margin

VfB Stuttgart wins by 2+
24%
RB Leipzig wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

VfB Stuttgart 1+ goals
82%
VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals
50%
VfB Stuttgart 3+ goals
24%
RB Leipzig 1+ goals
74%
RB Leipzig 2+ goals
39%
RB Leipzig 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

VfB Stuttgart (draw refunded)
60%
RB Leipzig (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfB Stuttgart at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.25 · 21 matches

RB Leipzig away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfB Stuttgart attack 1.87 + RB Leipzig defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.69

RB Leipzig attack 1.45 + VfB Stuttgart defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

VfB Stuttgart scores more
45%
level
24%
RB Leipzig scores more
31%

VfB Stuttgart at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "VfB Stuttgart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
Y. PoulsenRB LeipzigRB Leipzig · F
8.4

Match Events

6'
Y. Poulsen
16'
S. ZuberPenalty
22'
Gonzalo Castro
24'
Marcel Sabitzer
59'
Bruma← E. Forsberg
68'
M. Sabitzer
74'
D. Didavi← G. Castro
74'
Y. Poulsen↳ T. Adams
78'
S. Ilsanker← T. Werner
80'
A. Donis← A. Beck
86'
B. Sosa← E. Insúa
90'
Matheus Cunha← Y. Poulsen

Possession

48%VfB

Shots

8VfB

Pass accuracy

50%VfB

Statistics

VfBRB
Overview
48%Possession52%
8Total Shots8
5Corners4
19Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots8
3On Target4
3Off Target3
2Blocked1
6Inside Box3
2Outside Box5
Passing
48%Possession52%
432Total Passes473
307Accurate Passes336
71%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
19Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
7Offsides4

Match Recap: VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig beat VfB Stuttgart 3-1 in Bundesliga on February 16, 2019.

Goals: Y. Poulsen (6', 74'), S. Zuber (16' pen), M. Sabitzer (68').

RB Leipzig controlled possession (52%) and registered 8 shots to 8.

The match was played at Mercedes-Benz Arena in Stuttgart.