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JDFS Alberts vs Progress / AFA Olaine — Cup 2020

JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Progress / AFA Olaine
Progress / AFA Olaineadvanced
7/13/2024CupCup · Round of 16Upesciems pilsētas stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

JDFS Alberts56%
×Draw18%
Progress / AFA Olaine27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JDFS Alberts
2.95
Progress / AFA Olaine
2.05

JDFS Alberts creates 44% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

JDFS Alberts
3.57
Progress / AFA Olaine
2.67

allows per match

JDFS Alberts
1.43
Progress / AFA Olaine
2.33

finishing

JDFS Alberts+0.00on par
Progress / AFA Olaine+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JDFS Alberts ↓

Progress / AFA Olaine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

JDFS Alberts or draw
73%
JDFS Alberts or Progress / AFA Olaine
82%
Draw or Progress / AFA Olaine
44%

Winning margin

JDFS Alberts wins by 2+
37%
Progress / AFA Olaine wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

JDFS Alberts 1+ goals
95%
JDFS Alberts 2+ goals
79%
JDFS Alberts 3+ goals
55%
Progress / AFA Olaine 1+ goals
87%
Progress / AFA Olaine 2+ goals
61%
Progress / AFA Olaine 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

JDFS Alberts (draw refunded)
68%
Progress / AFA Olaine (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JDFS Alberts at home — creates 3.57, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Progress / AFA Olaine away — creates 2.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JDFS Alberts attack 3.57 + Progress / AFA Olaine defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.95

Progress / AFA Olaine attack 2.67 + JDFS Alberts defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

JDFS Alberts scores more
56%
level
18%
Progress / AFA Olaine scores more
27%

JDFS Alberts at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "JDFS Alberts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: JDFS Alberts 1–2 Progress / AFA Olaine

Progress / AFA Olaine beat JDFS Alberts 2-1 in Cup on July 13, 2024.

The match was played at Upesciems pilsētas stadions in Upesciems.