JDFS Alberts 3–2 New Project: Result & Stats

JDFS Alberts

FT

3 – 2

New Project

5/1/2019

1. Liga · Round 3RTU stadions (Rīga (Riga))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

JDFS Alberts70%

×Draw17%

New Project13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JDFS AlbertsExpected goals in this matchNew Project

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.00

JDFS Alberts

2.52

New Project

1.00

JDFS Alberts creates 152% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 14 away

2.10

creates per match

0.86

1.15

allows per match

2.93

creates per match

JDFS Alberts

2.10

New Project

0.86

allows per match

JDFS Alberts

1.15

New Project

2.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JDFS Alberts+0.00on par

New Project+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JDFS Alberts ↓

New Project →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

JDFS Alberts or draw

87%

JDFS Alberts or New Project

83%

Draw or New Project

30%

Winning margin

JDFS Alberts wins by 2+

48%

New Project wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

JDFS Alberts 1+ goals

92%

JDFS Alberts 2+ goals

71%

JDFS Alberts 3+ goals

45%

New Project 1+ goals

63%

New Project 2+ goals

26%

New Project 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

JDFS Alberts (draw refunded)

84%

New Project (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JDFS Alberts at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.15 · 86 matches

New Project away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JDFS Alberts attack 2.10 + New Project defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.52

New Project attack 0.86 + JDFS Alberts defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

JDFS Alberts scores more

70%

level

17%

New Project scores more

13%

JDFS Alberts at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "JDFS Alberts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff