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JD Somorrostro vs Urgatzi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

JD Somorrostro
JD Somorrostro
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Urgatzi
Urgatzi
12/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Estadio El Malecón Muskiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

JD Somorrostro78%
×Draw14%
Urgatzi8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JD Somorrostro
2.68
Urgatzi
0.75

JD Somorrostro creates 257% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

JD Somorrostro
1.43
Urgatzi
0.33

allows per match

JD Somorrostro
1.17
Urgatzi
3.93

finishing

JD Somorrostro+0.00on par
Urgatzi+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JD Somorrostro ↓

Urgatzi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

JD Somorrostro or draw
92%
JD Somorrostro or Urgatzi
86%
Draw or Urgatzi
22%

Winning margin

JD Somorrostro wins by 2+
56%
Urgatzi wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

JD Somorrostro 1+ goals
93%
JD Somorrostro 2+ goals
74%
JD Somorrostro 3+ goals
49%
Urgatzi 1+ goals
53%
Urgatzi 2+ goals
17%
Urgatzi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

JD Somorrostro (draw refunded)
91%
Urgatzi (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JD Somorrostro at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Urgatzi away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JD Somorrostro attack 1.43 + Urgatzi defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 2.68

Urgatzi attack 0.33 + JD Somorrostro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

JD Somorrostro scores more
78%
level
14%
Urgatzi scores more
8%

JD Somorrostro at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "JD Somorrostro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JD Somorrostro vs Urgatzi

JD Somorrostro beat Urgatzi 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on December 12, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Malecón Muskiz in Muskiz.