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JD Somorrostro vs Sestao River — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

JD Somorrostro
JD Somorrostro
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Sestao River
Sestao River
1/23/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Estadio El Malecón Muskiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

JD Somorrostro32%
×Draw26%
Sestao River42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JD Somorrostro
1.23
Sestao River
1.46

Sestao River creates 19% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 28 away

creates per match

JD Somorrostro
1.43
Sestao River
1.75

allows per match

JD Somorrostro
1.17
Sestao River
1.04

finishing

JD Somorrostro+0.00on par
Sestao River+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JD Somorrostro ↓

Sestao River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

JD Somorrostro or draw
58%
JD Somorrostro or Sestao River
74%
Draw or Sestao River
68%

Winning margin

JD Somorrostro wins by 2+
13%
Sestao River wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

JD Somorrostro 1+ goals
71%
JD Somorrostro 2+ goals
35%
JD Somorrostro 3+ goals
13%
Sestao River 1+ goals
77%
Sestao River 2+ goals
43%
Sestao River 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

JD Somorrostro (draw refunded)
43%
Sestao River (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JD Somorrostro at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Sestao River away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JD Somorrostro attack 1.43 + Sestao River defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sestao River attack 1.75 + JD Somorrostro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

JD Somorrostro scores more
32%
level
26%
Sestao River scores more
42%

Sestao River at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sestao River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: JD Somorrostro 0–2 Sestao River

Sestao River beat JD Somorrostro 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 23, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Malecón Muskiz in Muskiz.