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JD Somorrostro vs Santutxu — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

JD Somorrostro
JD Somorrostro
CANC
00:00
Santutxu
Santutxu
4/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 33Estadio El Malecón Muskiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

JD Somorrostro47%
×Draw26%
Santutxu27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JD Somorrostro
1.51
Santutxu
1.07

JD Somorrostro creates 41% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 46 away

creates per match

JD Somorrostro
1.43
Santutxu
0.98

allows per match

JD Somorrostro
1.17
Santutxu
1.59

finishing

JD Somorrostro+0.00on par
Santutxu+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JD Somorrostro ↓

Santutxu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

JD Somorrostro or draw
73%
JD Somorrostro or Santutxu
74%
Draw or Santutxu
53%

Winning margin

JD Somorrostro wins by 2+
24%
Santutxu wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

JD Somorrostro 1+ goals
78%
JD Somorrostro 2+ goals
44%
JD Somorrostro 3+ goals
19%
Santutxu 1+ goals
66%
Santutxu 2+ goals
29%
Santutxu 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

JD Somorrostro (draw refunded)
64%
Santutxu (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JD Somorrostro at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Santutxu away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JD Somorrostro attack 1.43 + Santutxu defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.51

Santutxu attack 0.98 + JD Somorrostro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

JD Somorrostro scores more
47%
level
26%
Santutxu scores more
27%

JD Somorrostro at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "JD Somorrostro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JD Somorrostro vs Santutxu — Match Preview

JD Somorrostro face Santutxu on April 9, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

JD Somorrostro host Santutxu at Estadio El Malecón Muskiz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.