JD Somorrostro vs Pasaia KE: Preview & Prediction

JD Somorrostro

CANC

00:00

Pasaia KE

4/26/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 35Estadio El Malecón Muskiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

JD Somorrostro44%

×Draw27%

Pasaia KE29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JD SomorrostroExpected goals in this matchPasaia KE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.08

JD Somorrostro

1.40

Pasaia KE

1.08

JD Somorrostro creates 30% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 111 away

1.43

creates per match

1.00

1.17

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

JD Somorrostro

1.43

Pasaia KE

1.00

allows per match

JD Somorrostro

1.17

Pasaia KE

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JD Somorrostro+0.00on par

Pasaia KE+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JD Somorrostro ↓

Pasaia KE →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

JD Somorrostro or draw

71%

JD Somorrostro or Pasaia KE

73%

Draw or Pasaia KE

56%

Winning margin

JD Somorrostro wins by 2+

21%

Pasaia KE wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

JD Somorrostro 1+ goals

75%

JD Somorrostro 2+ goals

41%

JD Somorrostro 3+ goals

17%

Pasaia KE 1+ goals

66%

Pasaia KE 2+ goals

29%

Pasaia KE 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

JD Somorrostro (draw refunded)

60%

Pasaia KE (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

JD Somorrostro at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Pasaia KE away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

JD Somorrostro attack 1.43 + Pasaia KE defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Pasaia KE attack 1.00 + JD Somorrostro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

JD Somorrostro scores more

44%

level

27%

Pasaia KE scores more

29%

JD Somorrostro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "JD Somorrostro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JD Somorrostro vs Pasaia KE — Match Preview

JD Somorrostro face Pasaia KE on April 26, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

JD Somorrostro host Pasaia KE at Estadio El Malecón Muskiz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

JD Somorrostro vs Pasaia KE — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

JD Somorrostro vs Pasaia KE — Match Preview