JD Somorrostro 1–1 Gernika: Result & Stats

JD Somorrostro

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gernika

11/7/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Estadio El Malecón Muskiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

JD Somorrostro33%

×Draw26%

Gernika41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JD SomorrostroExpected goals in this matchGernika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.38

JD Somorrostro

1.21

Gernika

1.38

Gernika creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 27 away

1.43

creates per match

1.59

1.17

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

JD Somorrostro

1.43

Gernika

1.59

allows per match

JD Somorrostro

1.17

Gernika

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JD Somorrostro+0.00on par

Gernika+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JD Somorrostro ↓

Gernika →

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

JD Somorrostro or draw

59%

JD Somorrostro or Gernika

74%

Draw or Gernika

67%

Winning margin

JD Somorrostro wins by 2+

14%

Gernika wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

JD Somorrostro 1+ goals

70%

JD Somorrostro 2+ goals

34%

JD Somorrostro 3+ goals

12%

Gernika 1+ goals

75%

Gernika 2+ goals

40%

Gernika 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

JD Somorrostro (draw refunded)

45%

Gernika (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

JD Somorrostro at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Gernika away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

JD Somorrostro attack 1.43 + Gernika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Gernika attack 1.59 + JD Somorrostro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

JD Somorrostro scores more

33%

level

26%

Gernika scores more

41%

Gernika at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gernika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff