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JD Somorrostro vs Deusto — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

JD Somorrostro
JD Somorrostro
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Deusto
Deusto
10/24/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2Estadio El Malecón Muskiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

JD Somorrostro44%
×Draw27%
Deusto29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JD Somorrostro
1.37
Deusto
1.07

JD Somorrostro creates 28% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 111 away

creates per match

JD Somorrostro
1.43
Deusto
0.98

allows per match

JD Somorrostro
1.17
Deusto
1.31

finishing

JD Somorrostro+0.00on par
Deusto+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JD Somorrostro ↓

Deusto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

JD Somorrostro or draw
71%
JD Somorrostro or Deusto
73%
Draw or Deusto
56%

Winning margin

JD Somorrostro wins by 2+
21%
Deusto wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

JD Somorrostro 1+ goals
75%
JD Somorrostro 2+ goals
40%
JD Somorrostro 3+ goals
16%
Deusto 1+ goals
66%
Deusto 2+ goals
29%
Deusto 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

JD Somorrostro (draw refunded)
60%
Deusto (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JD Somorrostro at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Deusto away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.31 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JD Somorrostro attack 1.43 + Deusto defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.37

Deusto attack 0.98 + JD Somorrostro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

JD Somorrostro scores more
44%
level
27%
Deusto scores more
29%

JD Somorrostro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "JD Somorrostro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: JD Somorrostro 0–3 Deusto

Deusto beat JD Somorrostro 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Malecón Muskiz in Muskiz.