JD Somorrostro 0–2 Aurrerá Ondarroa: Result & Stats

JD Somorrostro

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Aurrerá Ondarroa

3/13/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 21Estadio El Malecón Muskiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

JD Somorrostro49%

×Draw26%

Aurrerá Ondarroa26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JD SomorrostroExpected goals in this matchAurrerá Ondarroa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.04

JD Somorrostro

1.54

Aurrerá Ondarroa

1.04

JD Somorrostro creates 48% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 66 away

1.43

creates per match

0.92

1.17

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

JD Somorrostro

1.43

Aurrerá Ondarroa

0.92

allows per match

JD Somorrostro

1.17

Aurrerá Ondarroa

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JD Somorrostro+0.00on par

Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JD Somorrostro ↓

Aurrerá Ondarroa →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

JD Somorrostro or draw

74%

JD Somorrostro or Aurrerá Ondarroa

74%

Draw or Aurrerá Ondarroa

51%

Winning margin

JD Somorrostro wins by 2+

25%

Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+

Team goals

JD Somorrostro 1+ goals

79%

JD Somorrostro 2+ goals

45%

JD Somorrostro 3+ goals

20%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals

65%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals

28%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

JD Somorrostro (draw refunded)

66%

Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

JD Somorrostro at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

JD Somorrostro attack 1.43 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.54

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 0.92 + JD Somorrostro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

JD Somorrostro scores more

49%

level

26%

Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more

26%

JD Somorrostro at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "JD Somorrostro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JD Somorrostro vs Aurrerá Ondarroa

Aurrerá Ondarroa beat JD Somorrostro 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Malecón Muskiz in Muskiz.

JD Somorrostro vs Aurrerá Ondarroa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: JD Somorrostro vs Aurrerá Ondarroa