JBK 0–2 Kuopion Elo: Result & Stats

JBK

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kuopion Elo

10/1/2023

Kakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 21Jakobstads Centralplan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

JBK59%

×Draw19%

Kuopion Elo21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JBKExpected goals in this matchKuopion Elo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

1.36

JBK

2.36

Kuopion Elo

1.36

JBK creates 74% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 22 away

1.95

creates per match

1.27

1.46

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

JBK

1.95

Kuopion Elo

1.27

allows per match

JBK

1.46

Kuopion Elo

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JBK+0.00on par

Kuopion Elo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JBK ↓

Kuopion Elo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

JBK or draw

79%

JBK or Kuopion Elo

81%

Draw or Kuopion Elo

41%

Winning margin

JBK wins by 2+

38%

Kuopion Elo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

JBK 1+ goals

90%

JBK 2+ goals

68%

JBK 3+ goals

41%

Kuopion Elo 1+ goals

74%

Kuopion Elo 2+ goals

39%

Kuopion Elo 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

JBK (draw refunded)

74%

Kuopion Elo (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JBK at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.46 · 87 matches

Kuopion Elo away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JBK attack 1.95 + Kuopion Elo defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.36

Kuopion Elo attack 1.27 + JBK defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

JBK scores more

59%

level

19%

Kuopion Elo scores more

21%

JBK at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "JBK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff