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JBK vs KajHa — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

JBK
JBK
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
KajHa
KajHa
7/25/2019Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Round 13Länsikenttä tekonurmi (Pietarsaari (Jacobstad))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

JBK58%
×Draw21%
KajHa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JBK
2.15
KajHa
1.25

JBK creates 72% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 22 away

creates per match

JBK
1.95
KajHa
1.05

allows per match

JBK
1.46
KajHa
2.36

finishing

JBK+0.00on par
KajHa+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JBK ↓

KajHa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

JBK or draw
78%
JBK or KajHa
79%
Draw or KajHa
42%

Winning margin

JBK wins by 2+
35%
KajHa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

JBK 1+ goals
88%
JBK 2+ goals
63%
JBK 3+ goals
36%
KajHa 1+ goals
71%
KajHa 2+ goals
36%
KajHa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

JBK (draw refunded)
73%
KajHa (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JBK at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.46 · 87 matches

KajHa away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JBK attack 1.95 + KajHa defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.15

KajHa attack 1.05 + JBK defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

JBK scores more
58%
level
21%
KajHa scores more
22%

JBK at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "JBK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: JBK 1–2 KajHa

KajHa beat JBK 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on July 25, 2019.

The match was played at Länsikenttä tekonurmi (Pietarsaari (Jacobstad)).