Jayxun 0–0 Qiziriq: Result & Stats | Pro League A

Jayxun

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Qiziriq

4/25/2026

Pro League A · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Jayxun46%

×Draw25%

Qiziriq29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JayxunExpected goals in this matchQiziriq

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.21

Jayxun

1.60

Qiziriq

1.21

Jayxun creates 32% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

1.06

creates per match

0.86

1.56

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Jayxun

1.06

Qiziriq

0.86

allows per match

Jayxun

1.56

Qiziriq

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jayxun+0.00on par

Qiziriq+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jayxun ↓

Qiziriq →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Jayxun or draw

71%

Jayxun or Qiziriq

75%

Draw or Qiziriq

54%

Winning margin

Jayxun wins by 2+

24%

Qiziriq wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jayxun 1+ goals

80%

Jayxun 2+ goals

47%

Jayxun 3+ goals

22%

Qiziriq 1+ goals

70%

Qiziriq 2+ goals

34%

Qiziriq 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Jayxun (draw refunded)

62%

Qiziriq (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jayxun at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Qiziriq away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jayxun attack 1.06 + Qiziriq defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.60

Qiziriq attack 0.86 + Jayxun defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jayxun scores more

46%

level

25%

Qiziriq scores more

29%

Jayxun at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jayxun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Jayxun

Qiziriq

Manager: A. Nurbaev

Manager: E. Boymatov