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Jayxun vs Lokomotiv — Pro League A 2026

Jayxun
Jayxun
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
J. Otazhonov 82'
U. Karimov 78'
M. Zoirov 90', 61', 3'
S. Shodiboev 37'
A. Ergashev 23'
10/27/2025Pro League APro League A · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Jayxun24%
×Draw24%
Lokomotiv51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jayxun
1.08
Lokomotiv
1.68

Lokomotiv creates 56% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

creates per match

Jayxun
1.06
Lokomotiv
1.80

allows per match

Jayxun
1.56
Lokomotiv
1.10

finishing

Jayxun+0.00on par
Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jayxun ↓

Lokomotiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jayxun or draw
49%
Jayxun or Lokomotiv
76%
Draw or Lokomotiv
76%

Winning margin

Jayxun wins by 2+
9%
Lokomotiv wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Jayxun 1+ goals
66%
Jayxun 2+ goals
29%
Jayxun 3+ goals
10%
Lokomotiv 1+ goals
81%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
50%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Jayxun (draw refunded)
32%
Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jayxun at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jayxun attack 1.06 + Lokomotiv defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Lokomotiv attack 1.80 + Jayxun defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jayxun scores more
24%
level
24%
Lokomotiv scores more
51%

Lokomotiv at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
M. Zoirov
23'
A. Ergashev
37'
S. Shodiboev
61'
M. Zoirov
78'
U. Karimov
82'
J. Otazhonov
90'
M. Zoirov
Jayxun
Lokomotiv
A. Nurbaev
Manager: A. Nurbaev
G. Kolosovskii
Manager: G. Kolosovskii

Match Recap: Jayxun vs Lokomotiv

Lokomotiv beat Jayxun 5-2 in Pro League A on October 27, 2025.

Goals: M. Zoirov (3', 61', 90'), A. Ergashev (23'), S. Shodiboev (37'), U. Karimov (78'), J. Otazhonov (82').