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Jayxun vs Lochin — Pro League A 2026

Jayxun
Jayxun
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lochin
Lochin
S. Rasulov 90'
M. Mavlonov 14'
4/16/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Jayxun16%
×Draw24%
Lochin60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jayxun
0.73
Lochin
1.68

Lochin creates 130% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

creates per match

Jayxun
1.06
Lochin
1.80

allows per match

Jayxun
1.56
Lochin
0.40

finishing

Jayxun+0.00on par
Lochin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jayxun ↓

Lochin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jayxun or draw
40%
Jayxun or Lochin
76%
Draw or Lochin
84%

Winning margin

Jayxun wins by 2+
4%
Lochin wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Jayxun 1+ goals
52%
Jayxun 2+ goals
17%
Jayxun 3+ goals
4%
Lochin 1+ goals
81%
Lochin 2+ goals
50%
Lochin 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Jayxun (draw refunded)
21%
Lochin (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jayxun at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Lochin away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jayxun attack 1.06 + Lochin defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.73

Lochin attack 1.80 + Jayxun defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Jayxun scores more
16%
level
24%
Lochin scores more
60%

Lochin at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lochin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
M. Mavlonov
90'
S. Rasulov
Jayxun
Lochin
A. Nurbaev
Manager: A. Nurbaev
S. Turakulov
Manager: S. Turakulov

Jayxun 0 – 2 Lochin

Lochin beat Jayxun 2-0 in Pro League A on April 16, 2026.

Goals: M. Mavlonov (14'), S. Rasulov (90').