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Javor vs Sindjelic Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

Javor
Javor
FT
1 – 0
Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
10/27/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 13Stadion kraj Moravice (Ivanjica)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Javor63%
×Draw22%
Sindjelic Beograd15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Javor
1.85
Sindjelic Beograd
0.76

Javor creates 143% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 34 away

creates per match

Javor
1.91
Sindjelic Beograd
0.74

allows per match

Javor
0.77
Sindjelic Beograd
1.79

finishing

Javor+0.00on par
Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Javor ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Javor or draw
85%
Javor or Sindjelic Beograd
78%
Draw or Sindjelic Beograd
37%

Winning margin

Javor wins by 2+
37%
Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Javor 1+ goals
84%
Javor 2+ goals
55%
Javor 3+ goals
28%
Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
53%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
18%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Javor (draw refunded)
81%
Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Javor at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.77 · 57 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Javor attack 1.91 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.85

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.74 + Javor defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Javor scores more
63%
level
22%
Sindjelic Beograd scores more
15%

Javor at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Javor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Javor 1–0 Sindjelic Beograd

Javor beat Sindjelic Beograd 1-0 in Prva Liga on October 27, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion kraj Moravice (Ivanjica).