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Javor vs Radnik Surdulica — Super Liga 2026

Javor
Javor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Radnik Surdulica
Radnik Surdulica
3/12/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 25Stadion Ivanjica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Javor43%
×Draw27%
Radnik Surdulica30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Javor
1.36
Radnik Surdulica
1.09

Javor creates 25% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 128 away

creates per match

Javor
1.24
Radnik Surdulica
0.92

allows per match

Javor
1.27
Radnik Surdulica
1.48

finishing

Javor+0.00on par
Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Javor ↓

Radnik Surdulica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Javor or draw
70%
Javor or Radnik Surdulica
73%
Draw or Radnik Surdulica
57%

Winning margin

Javor wins by 2+
20%
Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Javor 1+ goals
74%
Javor 2+ goals
39%
Javor 3+ goals
16%
Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals
66%
Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals
30%
Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Javor (draw refunded)
59%
Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Javor at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

Radnik Surdulica away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.48 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Javor attack 1.24 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Radnik Surdulica attack 0.92 + Javor defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Javor scores more
43%
level
27%
Radnik Surdulica scores more
30%

Javor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Javor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Javor vs Radnik Surdulica

Javor beat Radnik Surdulica 2-1 in Super Liga on March 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Ivanjica in Ivanjica.