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Javor vs Novi Pazar — Super Liga 2026

Javor
Javor
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Novi Pazar
Novi Pazar
8/5/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 2Stadion Ivanjica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Javor43%
×Draw26%
Novi Pazar31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Javor
1.44
Novi Pazar
1.17

Javor creates 23% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 114 away

creates per match

Javor
1.24
Novi Pazar
1.07

allows per match

Javor
1.27
Novi Pazar
1.63

finishing

Javor+0.00on par
Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Javor ↓

Novi Pazar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Javor or draw
69%
Javor or Novi Pazar
74%
Draw or Novi Pazar
57%

Winning margin

Javor wins by 2+
21%
Novi Pazar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Javor 1+ goals
76%
Javor 2+ goals
42%
Javor 3+ goals
18%
Novi Pazar 1+ goals
69%
Novi Pazar 2+ goals
33%
Novi Pazar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Javor (draw refunded)
58%
Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Javor at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

Novi Pazar away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Javor attack 1.24 + Novi Pazar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Novi Pazar attack 1.07 + Javor defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Javor scores more
43%
level
26%
Novi Pazar scores more
31%

Javor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Javor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Javor 3–1 Novi Pazar

Javor beat Novi Pazar 3-1 in Super Liga on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Ivanjica in Ivanjica.