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Javor vs Mladost Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Javor
Javor
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
12/9/2024Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 19Stadion Ivanjica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Javor47%
×Draw28%
Mladost Novi Sad25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Javor
1.34
Mladost Novi Sad
0.88

Javor creates 52% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 55 away

creates per match

Javor
1.91
Mladost Novi Sad
0.98

allows per match

Javor
0.77
Mladost Novi Sad
0.78

finishing

Javor+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Javor ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Javor or draw
75%
Javor or Mladost Novi Sad
72%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
53%

Winning margin

Javor wins by 2+
22%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Javor 1+ goals
74%
Javor 2+ goals
39%
Javor 3+ goals
15%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
59%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
22%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Javor (draw refunded)
66%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Javor at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.77 · 57 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Javor attack 1.91 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.34

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.98 + Javor defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Javor scores more
47%
level
28%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
25%

Javor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Javor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Javor vs Mladost Novi Sad

Javor beat Mladost Novi Sad 1-0 in Prva Liga on December 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Ivanjica in Ivanjica.