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Javor vs Bezanija — Prva Liga 2018

Javor
Javor
FT
3 – 1
Bezanija
Bezanija
4/27/2019Prva LigaPrva Liga · Championship Round - 5Stadion kraj Moravice (Ivanjica)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Javor58%
×Draw23%
Bezanija19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Javor
1.75
Bezanija
0.89

Javor creates 97% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Javor
1.91
Bezanija
1.00

allows per match

Javor
0.77
Bezanija
1.58

finishing

Javor+0.00on par
Bezanija+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Javor ↓

Bezanija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Javor or draw
81%
Javor or Bezanija
77%
Draw or Bezanija
42%

Winning margin

Javor wins by 2+
32%
Bezanija wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Javor 1+ goals
83%
Javor 2+ goals
52%
Javor 3+ goals
25%
Bezanija 1+ goals
59%
Bezanija 2+ goals
22%
Bezanija 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Javor (draw refunded)
75%
Bezanija (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Javor at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.77 · 57 matches

Bezanija away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Javor attack 1.91 + Bezanija defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.75

Bezanija attack 1.00 + Javor defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Javor scores more
58%
level
23%
Bezanija scores more
19%

Javor at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Javor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Javor 3–1 Bezanija

Javor beat Bezanija 3-1 in Prva Liga on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion kraj Moravice (Ivanjica).