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Jászberényi Vasas vs Törökszentmiklós — NB III - Northeast 2019

Jászberényi Vasas
Jászberényi Vasas
FT
4 – 0
Törökszentmiklós
Törökszentmiklós
8/1/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 1Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Jászberényi Vasas59%
×Draw20%
Törökszentmiklós21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jászberényi Vasas
2.19
Törökszentmiklós
1.23

Jászberényi Vasas creates 78% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 19 away

creates per match

Jászberényi Vasas
1.64
Törökszentmiklós
0.63

allows per match

Jászberényi Vasas
1.82
Törökszentmiklós
2.74

finishing

Jászberényi Vasas+0.00on par
Törökszentmiklós+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jászberényi Vasas ↓

Törökszentmiklós →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Jászberényi Vasas or draw
79%
Jászberényi Vasas or Törökszentmiklós
80%
Draw or Törökszentmiklós
41%

Winning margin

Jászberényi Vasas wins by 2+
36%
Törökszentmiklós wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Jászberényi Vasas 1+ goals
89%
Jászberényi Vasas 2+ goals
64%
Jászberényi Vasas 3+ goals
37%
Törökszentmiklós 1+ goals
71%
Törökszentmiklós 2+ goals
35%
Törökszentmiklós 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Jászberényi Vasas (draw refunded)
74%
Törökszentmiklós (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jászberényi Vasas at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.82 · 66 matches

Törökszentmiklós away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jászberényi Vasas attack 1.64 + Törökszentmiklós defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.19

Törökszentmiklós attack 0.63 + Jászberényi Vasas defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Jászberényi Vasas scores more
59%
level
20%
Törökszentmiklós scores more
21%

Jászberényi Vasas at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Jászberényi Vasas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jászberényi Vasas vs Törökszentmiklós

Jászberényi Vasas beat Törökszentmiklós 4-0 in NB III - Northeast on August 1, 2021.

The match was played at Városi Stadion in Jászberény.