Jászberényi Vasas 1–0 Mezőkövesd II: Result & Stats

Jászberényi Vasas

FT

1 – 0

Mezőkövesd II

4/11/2021

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 28Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Jászberényi Vasas60%

×Draw19%

Mezőkövesd II21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jászberényi VasasExpected goals in this matchMezőkövesd II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.35

Jászberényi Vasas

2.40

Mezőkövesd II

1.35

Jászberényi Vasas creates 78% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 19 away

1.64

creates per match

0.89

1.82

allows per match

3.16

creates per match

Jászberényi Vasas

1.64

Mezőkövesd II

0.89

allows per match

Jászberényi Vasas

1.82

Mezőkövesd II

3.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jászberényi Vasas+0.00on par

Mezőkövesd II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jászberényi Vasas ↓

Mezőkövesd II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Jászberényi Vasas or draw

79%

Jászberényi Vasas or Mezőkövesd II

81%

Draw or Mezőkövesd II

40%

Winning margin

Jászberényi Vasas wins by 2+

39%

Mezőkövesd II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Jászberényi Vasas 1+ goals

91%

Jászberényi Vasas 2+ goals

69%

Jászberényi Vasas 3+ goals

42%

Mezőkövesd II 1+ goals

74%

Mezőkövesd II 2+ goals

39%

Mezőkövesd II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Jászberényi Vasas (draw refunded)

74%

Mezőkövesd II (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jászberényi Vasas at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.82 · 66 matches

Mezőkövesd II away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jászberényi Vasas attack 1.64 + Mezőkövesd II defence 3.16 → ÷2 → 2.40

Mezőkövesd II attack 0.89 + Jászberényi Vasas defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Jászberényi Vasas scores more

60%

level

19%

Mezőkövesd II scores more

21%

Jászberényi Vasas at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Jászberényi Vasas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff