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Jászberényi Vasas vs Hajdúszoboszlói SE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Jászberényi Vasas
Jászberényi Vasas
FT
2 – 0
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
10/3/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 10Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Jászberényi Vasas36%
×Draw23%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jászberényi Vasas
1.58
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 38 away

creates per match

Jászberényi Vasas
1.64
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

allows per match

Jászberényi Vasas
1.82
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

finishing

Jászberényi Vasas+0.00on par
Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jászberényi Vasas ↓

Hajdúszoboszlói SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Jászberényi Vasas or draw
60%
Jászberényi Vasas or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
77%
Draw or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
64%

Winning margin

Jászberényi Vasas wins by 2+
18%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Jászberényi Vasas 1+ goals
79%
Jászberényi Vasas 2+ goals
47%
Jászberényi Vasas 3+ goals
21%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals
81%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals
50%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Jászberényi Vasas (draw refunded)
47%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jászberényi Vasas at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.82 · 66 matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jászberényi Vasas attack 1.64 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.58

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.53 + Jászberényi Vasas defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jászberényi Vasas scores more
36%
level
23%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more
40%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hajdúszoboszlói SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jászberényi Vasas vs Hajdúszoboszlói SE

Jászberényi Vasas beat Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2-0 in NB III - Northeast on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Városi Stadion in Jászberény.