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Jastrzębie vs Wisła Puławy — II Liga - East 2019

Jastrzębie
Jastrzębie
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
5/17/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 33Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Jastrzębie41%
×Draw25%
Wisła Puławy34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jastrzębie
1.51
Wisła Puławy
1.37

Jastrzębie creates 10% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 70 away

creates per match

Jastrzębie
1.19
Wisła Puławy
1.49

allows per match

Jastrzębie
1.25
Wisła Puławy
1.83

finishing

Jastrzębie+0.00on par
Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jastrzębie ↓

Wisła Puławy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Jastrzębie or draw
66%
Jastrzębie or Wisła Puławy
75%
Draw or Wisła Puławy
59%

Winning margin

Jastrzębie wins by 2+
20%
Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Jastrzębie 1+ goals
78%
Jastrzębie 2+ goals
44%
Jastrzębie 3+ goals
19%
Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
75%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
40%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Jastrzębie (draw refunded)
54%
Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jastrzębie at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.83 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jastrzębie attack 1.19 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.51

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Jastrzębie defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jastrzębie scores more
41%
level
25%
Wisła Puławy scores more
34%

Jastrzębie at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jastrzębie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jastrzębie vs Wisła Puławy

Jastrzębie and Wisła Puławy drew 0-0 in II Liga - East on May 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Jastrzębie Zdrój.