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Jastrzębie vs Radunia Stężyca — II Liga - East 2019

Jastrzębie
Jastrzębie
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
3/28/2025II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 24Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Jastrzębie43%
×Draw25%
Radunia Stężyca32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jastrzębie
1.49
Radunia Stężyca
1.25

Jastrzębie creates 19% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 61 away

creates per match

Jastrzębie
1.19
Radunia Stężyca
1.25

allows per match

Jastrzębie
1.25
Radunia Stężyca
1.79

finishing

Jastrzębie+0.00on par
Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jastrzębie ↓

Radunia Stężyca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jastrzębie or draw
68%
Jastrzębie or Radunia Stężyca
75%
Draw or Radunia Stężyca
57%

Winning margin

Jastrzębie wins by 2+
21%
Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Jastrzębie 1+ goals
77%
Jastrzębie 2+ goals
44%
Jastrzębie 3+ goals
19%
Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
71%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
36%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Jastrzębie (draw refunded)
57%
Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jastrzębie at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jastrzębie attack 1.19 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.49

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.25 + Jastrzębie defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jastrzębie scores more
43%
level
25%
Radunia Stężyca scores more
32%

Jastrzębie at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jastrzębie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Jastrzębie 1–0 Radunia Stężyca

Jastrzębie beat Radunia Stężyca 1-0 in II Liga - East on March 28, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Jastrzębie Zdrój.