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Jas Qyran vs Sport Academy Kairat — 1. Division 2019

Jas Qyran
Jas Qyran
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sport Academy Kairat
Sport Academy Kairat
9/21/20231. Division1. Division · Round 24Stadion Jas Qyran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Jas Qyran47%
×Draw22%
Sport Academy Kairat32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jas Qyran
1.98
Sport Academy Kairat
1.60

Jas Qyran creates 24% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 90 away

creates per match

Jas Qyran
2.36
Sport Academy Kairat
1.92

allows per match

Jas Qyran
1.29
Sport Academy Kairat
1.60

finishing

Jas Qyran+0.00on par
Sport Academy Kairat+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jas Qyran ↓

Sport Academy Kairat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Jas Qyran or draw
68%
Jas Qyran or Sport Academy Kairat
78%
Draw or Sport Academy Kairat
53%

Winning margin

Jas Qyran wins by 2+
26%
Sport Academy Kairat wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jas Qyran 1+ goals
86%
Jas Qyran 2+ goals
59%
Jas Qyran 3+ goals
31%
Sport Academy Kairat 1+ goals
80%
Sport Academy Kairat 2+ goals
47%
Sport Academy Kairat 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Jas Qyran (draw refunded)
60%
Sport Academy Kairat (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jas Qyran at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Sport Academy Kairat away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.60 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jas Qyran attack 2.36 + Sport Academy Kairat defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.98

Sport Academy Kairat attack 1.92 + Jas Qyran defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jas Qyran scores more
47%
level
22%
Sport Academy Kairat scores more
32%

Jas Qyran at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jas Qyran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jas Qyran vs Sport Academy Kairat

Jas Qyran and Sport Academy Kairat drew 0-0 in 1. Division on September 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Jas Qyran in Almaty.