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Jas Qyran vs Maqtaaral — Cup 2019

Jas Qyran
Jas Qyran
FT
0 – 2
Maqtaaral
Maqtaaral
4/22/2021CupCup · 1st Preliminary RoundOrtalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Jas Qyran30%
×Draw25%
Maqtaaral45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jas Qyran
1.22
Maqtaaral
1.56

Maqtaaral creates 28% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Jas Qyran
0.80
Maqtaaral
1.73

allows per match

Jas Qyran
1.40
Maqtaaral
1.64

finishing

Jas Qyran+0.00on par
Maqtaaral+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jas Qyran ↓

Maqtaaral →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Jas Qyran or draw
55%
Jas Qyran or Maqtaaral
75%
Draw or Maqtaaral
70%

Winning margin

Jas Qyran wins by 2+
12%
Maqtaaral wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Jas Qyran 1+ goals
70%
Jas Qyran 2+ goals
34%
Jas Qyran 3+ goals
12%
Maqtaaral 1+ goals
79%
Maqtaaral 2+ goals
46%
Maqtaaral 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Jas Qyran (draw refunded)
40%
Maqtaaral (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jas Qyran at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Maqtaaral away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jas Qyran attack 0.80 + Maqtaaral defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.22

Maqtaaral attack 1.73 + Jas Qyran defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jas Qyran scores more
30%
level
25%
Maqtaaral scores more
45%

Maqtaaral at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Maqtaaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jas Qyran vs Maqtaaral

Maqtaaral beat Jas Qyran 2-0 in Cup on April 22, 2021.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Almaty.