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Jas Qyran vs Atyrau — Cup 2024

Jas Qyran
Jas Qyran
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Atyrau
Atyrauadvanced
Y. Trufanov 86', 57'
A. Boranaliev 55' (OG)
E. Khvalko 5'
4/8/2026CupCup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jas Qyran17%
×Draw26%
Atyrau57%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jas Qyran
0.67
Atyrau
1.50

Atyrau creates 124% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Jas Qyran
0.33
Atyrau
1.33

allows per match

Jas Qyran
1.67
Atyrau
1.00

finishing

Jas Qyran+0.00on par
Atyrau+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jas Qyran ↓

Atyrau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–117%
0–213%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Jas Qyran or draw
43%
Jas Qyran or Atyrau
74%
Draw or Atyrau
83%

Winning margin

Jas Qyran wins by 2+
4%
Atyrau wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Jas Qyran 1+ goals
49%
Jas Qyran 2+ goals
15%
Jas Qyran 3+ goals
3%
Atyrau 1+ goals
78%
Atyrau 2+ goals
44%
Atyrau 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Jas Qyran (draw refunded)
22%
Atyrau (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jas Qyran at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Atyrau away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jas Qyran attack 0.33 + Atyrau defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Atyrau attack 1.33 + Jas Qyran defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Jas Qyran scores more
17%
level
26%
Atyrau scores more
57%

Atyrau at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atyrau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
E. Khvalko↳ B. Shaykhov
55'
A. BoranalievOwn goal
57'
Y. Trufanov
86'
Y. Trufanov↳ K. Kalmuratov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jas Qyran vs Atyrau

Atyrau beat Jas Qyran 4-0 in Cup on April 8, 2026.

Goals: E. Khvalko (5'), A. Boranaliev (55' o.g.), Y. Trufanov (57', 86').