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Jas Qyran vs AKAS — Cup 2019

Jas Qyran
Jas Qyran
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
AKAS
AKAS
A. Alikhan 77'
N. Agzambayev 45+5'
A. Seitov 40'
3/24/2023CupCup · Qualifying Round - 3Stadion Jas Qyran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Jas Qyran44%
×Draw27%
AKAS30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jas Qyran
1.40
AKAS
1.10

Jas Qyran creates 27% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Jas Qyran
0.80
AKAS
0.80

allows per match

Jas Qyran
1.40
AKAS
2.00

finishing

Jas Qyran+0.00on par
AKAS+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jas Qyran ↓

AKAS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Jas Qyran or draw
70%
Jas Qyran or AKAS
73%
Draw or AKAS
56%

Winning margin

Jas Qyran wins by 2+
21%
AKAS wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jas Qyran 1+ goals
75%
Jas Qyran 2+ goals
41%
Jas Qyran 3+ goals
17%
AKAS 1+ goals
67%
AKAS 2+ goals
30%
AKAS 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jas Qyran (draw refunded)
60%
AKAS (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jas Qyran at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

AKAS away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jas Qyran attack 0.80 + AKAS defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

AKAS attack 0.80 + Jas Qyran defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jas Qyran scores more
44%
level
27%
AKAS scores more
30%

Jas Qyran at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jas Qyran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
A. Nurdaliev
24'
T. Tseytlin
40'
A. Seitov
41'
B. Kavkenov
45+4'
A. Khakimov
45+5'
N. Agzambayev
46'
A. Kalymbetov← A. Kalymbetov
46'
A. Aydarbekuly← A. Aydarbekuly
53'
B. Zhunisbek← B. Zhunisbek
62'
A. Piskun← A. Piskun
63'
S. Kabirov← S. Kabirov
67'
A. Alikhan← A. Alikhan
70'
M. Kotov
75'
D. Alimzhan← D. Alimzhan
77'
A. Alikhan
79'
D. Yerlan
80'
R. Kanat← R. Kanat
80'
R. Lysenko← R. Lysenko
80'
A. Tastanov← A. Tastanov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jas Qyran vs AKAS

Jas Qyran beat AKAS 3-0 in Cup on March 24, 2023.

Goals: A. Seitov (40'), N. Agzambayev (45+5'), A. Alikhan (77').

The match was played at Stadion Jas Qyran in Almaty.