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Jarun vs Vukovar — First NL 2018

Jarun
Jarun
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Vukovar
Vukovar
4/26/2024First NLFirst NL · Round 28Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Jarun31%
×Draw26%
Vukovar43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jarun
1.17
Vukovar
1.44

Vukovar creates 23% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 48 away

creates per match

Jarun
1.51
Vukovar
1.48

allows per match

Jarun
1.40
Vukovar
0.83

finishing

Jarun+0.00on par
Vukovar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jarun ↓

Vukovar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Jarun or draw
57%
Jarun or Vukovar
74%
Draw or Vukovar
69%

Winning margin

Jarun wins by 2+
12%
Vukovar wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Jarun 1+ goals
69%
Jarun 2+ goals
33%
Jarun 3+ goals
11%
Vukovar 1+ goals
76%
Vukovar 2+ goals
42%
Vukovar 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Jarun (draw refunded)
42%
Vukovar (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jarun at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.40 · 80 matches

Vukovar away — creates 1.48, concedes 0.83 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jarun attack 1.51 + Vukovar defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.17

Vukovar attack 1.48 + Jarun defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jarun scores more
31%
level
26%
Vukovar scores more
43%

Vukovar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vukovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jarun vs Vukovar

Jarun and Vukovar drew 2-2 in First NL on April 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić in Zaprešić.