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Jarun vs Sibenik — First NL 2018

Jarun
Jarun
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Sibenik
Sibenik
10/23/2023First NLFirst NL · Round 11Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Jarun33%
×Draw27%
Sibenik40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jarun
1.18
Sibenik
1.33

Sibenik creates 13% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 40 away

creates per match

Jarun
1.51
Sibenik
1.27

allows per match

Jarun
1.40
Sibenik
0.85

finishing

Jarun+0.00on par
Sibenik+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jarun ↓

Sibenik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Jarun or draw
60%
Jarun or Sibenik
73%
Draw or Sibenik
67%

Winning margin

Jarun wins by 2+
14%
Sibenik wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Jarun 1+ goals
69%
Jarun 2+ goals
33%
Jarun 3+ goals
12%
Sibenik 1+ goals
74%
Sibenik 2+ goals
38%
Sibenik 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Jarun (draw refunded)
45%
Sibenik (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jarun at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.40 · 80 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.85 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jarun attack 1.51 + Sibenik defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.18

Sibenik attack 1.27 + Jarun defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jarun scores more
33%
level
27%
Sibenik scores more
40%

Sibenik at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Jarun 0–3 Sibenik

Sibenik beat Jarun 3-0 in First NL on October 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić in Zaprešić.