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Jarun vs Sesvete — First NL 2018

Jarun
Jarun
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sesvete
Sesvete
2/14/2026First NLFirst NL · Round 18Igralište Nogometni Klub Jarun

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Jarun40%
×Draw26%
Sesvete34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jarun
1.38
Sesvete
1.25

Jarun creates 10% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 103 away

creates per match

Jarun
1.51
Sesvete
1.11

allows per match

Jarun
1.40
Sesvete
1.24

finishing

Jarun+0.00on par
Sesvete+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jarun ↓

Sesvete →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jarun or draw
66%
Jarun or Sesvete
74%
Draw or Sesvete
60%

Winning margin

Jarun wins by 2+
19%
Sesvete wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jarun 1+ goals
75%
Jarun 2+ goals
40%
Jarun 3+ goals
16%
Sesvete 1+ goals
71%
Sesvete 2+ goals
36%
Sesvete 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Jarun (draw refunded)
54%
Sesvete (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jarun at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.40 · 80 matches

Sesvete away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jarun attack 1.51 + Sesvete defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sesvete attack 1.11 + Jarun defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jarun scores more
40%
level
26%
Sesvete scores more
34%

Jarun at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jarun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jarun vs Sesvete

Sesvete beat Jarun 1-0 in First NL on February 14, 2026.

The match was played at Igralište Nogometni Klub Jarun in Zagreb.