Jarun 1–1 Inter Zapresic: Result & Stats | First NL

Jarun

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Inter Zapresic

3/12/2022

First NL · Round 20Igralište NK Kustošija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Jarun40%

×Draw26%

Inter Zapresic34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JarunExpected goals in this matchInter Zapresic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.29

Jarun

1.43

Inter Zapresic

1.29

Jarun creates 11% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 32 away

1.51

creates per match

1.19

1.40

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Jarun

1.51

Inter Zapresic

1.19

allows per match

Jarun

1.40

Inter Zapresic

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jarun+0.00on par

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jarun ↓

Inter Zapresic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Jarun or draw

66%

Jarun or Inter Zapresic

74%

Draw or Inter Zapresic

60%

Winning margin

Jarun wins by 2+

19%

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Jarun 1+ goals

76%

Jarun 2+ goals

42%

Jarun 3+ goals

17%

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals

72%

Inter Zapresic 2+ goals

37%

Inter Zapresic 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Jarun (draw refunded)

54%

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jarun at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.40 · 80 matches

Inter Zapresic away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jarun attack 1.51 + Inter Zapresic defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.43

Inter Zapresic attack 1.19 + Jarun defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jarun scores more

40%

level

26%

Inter Zapresic scores more

34%

Jarun at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jarun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff